Science Desk, Dec 3 (EFE).- An ice-free Arctic could be a reality by 2027, according to new research that warns of accelerating ice melt in the northernmost ocean.
The study, published in the journal Nature Communications, was carried out by an international group of researchers led by climatologists Alexandra Jahn (University of Colorado Boulder) and Céline Heuzé (University of Gothenburg in Sweden).
The team used more than 300 computer simulations to predict when the first ice-free day might occur in the world’s northernmost ocean.
The researchers show that most models predict that the first ice-free day could occur between nine and 20 years after 2023, regardless of how greenhouse gas emissions evolve.
An ice-free Arctic could significantly affect Earth’s ecosystem and climate by changing weather patterns, as scientists have warned for decades.
“The first ice-free day in the Arctic won’t change things dramatically. But it will show that we’ve fundamentally altered one of the defining characteristics of the natural environment in the Arctic Ocean, which is that it is covered by sea ice and snow year-round, through greenhouse gas emissions,” said Jahn in a statement.
The research group has also identified a series of extreme weather events that could melt at least 2 million square kilometres of sea ice in a short period of time: an unusually warm autumn that weakens the sea ice, followed by a warm Arctic winter and spring that prevent sea ice from forming.
If the Arctic experiences such extreme warming for three or more years in a row, the first ice-free day could occur in late summer.
In the study, nine simulations suggested that an ice-free day could occur within three years, or six years at the most.
However, the researchers warn that all is not lost and that their models showed that a drastic reduction in emissions could delay the disappearance of Arctic ice and reduce the time the ocean remains ice-free.
“Any reductions in emissions would help preserve sea ice,” Jahn said.
Arctic sea ice is disappearing at an unprecedented rate of more than 12 percent per decade as the planet warms due to rising greenhouse gas emissions.
According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado Boulder, in 2024 the lowest amount of frozen seawater in the Arctic was recorded in September at 4.28 million square kilometers, suring the historic low of September 2012 – the lowest on record since 1978.
When the Arctic Ocean has less than 1 million square kilometers of ice, scientists consider the Arctic to be ice-free.
Previous studies published by the same team concluded that the Arctic will be completely ice-free for an entire month in the 2030s.EFE
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